In addition, the Russian Federation has a plan B handy. It provides for a very fast relaunch of industrial capacities remaining in the region and implanting them in domestic Russian market with subsidies provided. Russian Federation will adopt this option in case of the definite scrapping of the Minsk process and rejection of the active military phase. In this case, the purpose of the new project will be to build a paternalistic ersatz-state economic model in ORDLO that resembles the times of the late USSR. Simply put, it will be about creating an industrial showcase for residents of southeast Ukraine. In this context, forming Ukrainian industrial policy for the full development of the Donetsk-Pridneprovsky economic region, especially for such cities as Dnipro, Zaporizhya, Kamiansk, Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, becomes vital. In addition, strengthening of the Ukrainian information, cultural and humanitarian policy regarding such pro-Ukrainian enclaves as Alchevsk becomes extremely important. Such a comprehensive program, designed for the next three to five years, will help, on the one hand, to minimize the infiltration of Russian politico-economic projects in the cities of southeast Ukraine. On the other hand, it will provide conditions for the de-occupation of uncontrolled territories by strengthening there sentiments, directed against DNR / LNR policy. Over time, such negative attitudes will inevitably transform into sustainable pro-Ukrainian local movements.
The main estimates and projections are summarized in the table:
As a new means of de-occupation of territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, a mechanism of demilitarized free economic territories (DeFET) can be used. Principles of their creation:
DeFETs are created in the rear parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions beyond Ukrainian government control.;
The DeFET zones are completely demilitarized: the illegal armed groups and heavy military equipment are withdrawn;
Local authorities legitimate as of December, 2013 are restored within DeFET zones;
To enforce law and order within DeFET areas reinforced OCSE monitoring missions and local militia under OCSE officials command are deployed;
Within DeFET territories enterprises registered according to Ukrainian legislation and the Ukrainian banking system are relaunched;
Within DeFET territories, cargo transportation is renewed;
Within DeFET territories state fiscal service stations start functioning issuing Ukrainian certificates of origin for manufactured goods.
A number of factors taken into account, at present, the highest chances to create the DeFET are in the Alchevsk industrial region, Yenakievsko-Makeyevka agglomeration, Khartsyzsk, and in coal mining sites: Antratsyt, Rovenki, Sverdlovsk.Creating DeFET can become a new hybrid form of de-occupation of uncontrolled territories, a transitional step to their full integration into the economic and political space of Ukraine.
In a sense, the Kaesong Industrial Park, created jointly by the DPRK and South Korea could be considered the international analogue of the DeFET model. Just a reminder: The Kaesong Industrial Park is located on the territory of the DPRK, 10 km north of the Demilitarized zone. Until recently, 120 South Korean small and medium-sized companies and 15 large corporations had operated within the industrial park area. The trade turnover of the zone was an average of $ 2 billion per year, with over 50 thousand people employed (mostly from North Korea).
Otherwise, if the state continues mechanically cutting off uncontrolled territories and is unable to stop industrial stagnation in controlled ones, it will not be possible to avoid the infiltration of Russian influence in the southeast of Ukraine.